BetMGM vs Paddy Power in Brazil’s 2026 sports betting market

Flutter’s NSX acquisition

Flutter agreed to buy a 56% stake in NSX Group for 350 million US dollars. This deal brings the Betnacional brand into the Flutter portfolio. The acquisition merges NSX with Betfair Brazil to create a new entity called Flutter Brazil. NSX holds a 12% share of the Brazilian sports betting market. NSX expected 2024 revenues of 256 million US dollars and a core profit of 34 million US dollars. This revenue is more than three times the amount earned by Betfair Brazil. Flutter expects the new company to lose between 90 million and 100 million US dollars in 2025 because of its investment drive. Peter Jackson, the Flutter chief executive, says the addition of NSX provides a compelling opportunity to capitalize on growth in Brazil. Shore Capital analyst Greg Johnson calls the move a sensible way to expand the growth profile of the company. This expansion follows Flutter’s decision to switch its primary stock market listing to New York in May. Flutter can also increase its ownership stake in NSX through options available five and ten years after the deal completion.

BetMGM’s financial reality

BetMGM reported a net revenue of 711 million US dollars for the second quarter of 2026. This total includes 483 million US dollars from iGaming and 228 million US dollars from online sports. The company generated 74 million US dollars in adjusted EBITDA during the second quarter. BetMGM holds a 13% GGR market share in active markets. Within these markets, the company holds 20% of the iGaming share and 8% of the online sports share. For the first half of 2026, BetMGM net revenue reached 1.4 billion US dollars, which is a 4% increase from the previous year. H1 adjusted EBITDA reached 99 million US dollars. During the first half of the year, handle per active increased 18% and NGR per active increased 17%. In Nevada, the online sports handle grew 10% during the first half of the year. While iGaming revenue grew 8% year-over-year, online sports revenue was flat. BetMGM targets a premium mass audience to drive growth. The company uses exclusive content such as Game of Thrones titles and Hollywood legends inspired slots like Elvis Presley: Viva Las Records and Marilyn Monroe Slingo. BetMGM also uses the Borgata brand refresh to maintain momentum. BetMGM remains on track to deliver its full-year 2026 guidance, even if it hits the lower end of the expected ranges. The company focuses on disciplined player management and acquisition to support its KPIs.

The Brazilian regulatory environment

The regulatory framework for sports betting in Brazil has been in place since 2018, but the current era of regulation began on January 1, 2025. In its first year, the Ministry of Finance reported that betting operators contributed 9.95 billion Reais in taxes and mandatory allocations. Licensed operators paid 30 million Reais in licensing fees. Regulated operators invested approximately 7.5 billion Reais in share capital and generated 15,500 jobs. The illegal market share in the betting sector fell to between 38% and 44% in the first half of 2026. This is a decrease from the 41% to 51% range seen in the previous survey from June 2025. A study by LCA Consultores and the Instituto Locomotiva found that 53% of bettors used websites without facial recognition in the three months before the May 2026 survey. Other illegal practices include using non-.bet.br domains, credit cards, and cryptocurrencies. In the May 2026 survey of 2,291 bettors, 48% had bet on websites with domains other than .bet.br and 37% had made deposits using credit cards. Additionally, 23% of respondents used cryptocurrencies, a method not permitted in the regulated market. Among those eligible to access the illegal market, 51% are women and 49% are men. The largest age group is between 18 and 29 years old, representing 54% of participants. Also, 51% of these bettors earn up to two minimum wages. Regulated operators must allow transactions only via PIX and debit from the account holder’s bank account. They cannot accept credit cards or cryptocurrencies. Consumers can use the betalert.com.br website to check if a platform is regulated by the Federal Government. Ordinance 1.964/2026 requires risk warnings to occupy at least 10% of advertising space. The expansion of regulatory oversight through Interministerial Ordinance 73/2026 extends legal liability for advertising to social media platforms, app stores, media outlets, and influencers who distribute promotional content to accounts belonging to different minors throughout the country. Carlos Lima, the CEO of IBJR, says these figures show that regulation and government efforts to combat illegal platforms produce concrete results.

The battle for the market

Flutter holds the lead in the Brazilian market because its NSX acquisition secures a 12% market share. BetMGM maintains a strong position in the US, but its online sports revenue was flat in the second quarter of 2026. You already know that football drives the massive demand in Brazil. Will the high costs of regulatory compliance in Brazil force smaller operators out of the market entirely?